Estonian dreams of growth

  • Morten Hansen
  • 12.11.2014
Igaunijas premjerministrs Tāvi Reivass. Foto: AFP/LETA

Igaunijas premjerministrs Tāvi Reivass. Foto: AFP/LETA

We may sometimes joke about Estonians and their big ambitions but I have to shake my head in disbelief over this story - and for three reasons, see at the end.

According to official news from the Estonian government, Estonian Prime Minister, Taavi Rõivas, declared at a conference in Tartu on 31 October that Estonian GDP should increase by 25% by 2018.

That sounds very good - the only problem is that it is not going to happen so it is empty words and of no use - hot air, wishful thinking.

2018 is only 3 years and two months away. Currently the Estonian economy is growing at 2.4% on an annual basis (2nd quarter 2014, according to Eurostat). Use that rate as an estimate for the whole of 2014 and the economy will have to grow on average 6.8% for each of the years 2015, 2016 and 2017 to reach the PM's target - or should we call it dream? It would have to look like Figure 1 below.

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