Is inflation on the rise?

  • Mortens Hansens, ekonomists
  • 26.05.2021
Ilustratīvs attēls

Ilustratīvs attēls.

It is often said that the frequency by which the word “recession” is mentioned in newspaper articles is a good indicator for a looming recession.

If the same goes for inflation, then inflation is definitely on its way.

But the question of rising inflation should be more nuanced: I prefer to ask it as two questions instead of one:

The first question is very simple to answer: Yes!

But it is the second question that is much more interesting.

To limit the length of a column I choose to deal with the two questions in two separate columns; thus the easy question features in this one.

One might say that question 1) is answered just by looking at Figure 1 – yes, inflation is rising in the Eurozone and in Latvia and should now be close to its target (“close to but below 2% in the medium term in the Eurozone”) but I am pretty sure it will overshoot this target in the short run, i.e. in the months to come.

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